Team incidence and Car performance: Ferrari miss chance in the F1 Hungarian GP

The last Grand Prix ahead of the summer break turns to be another episode of the 2022 Ferrari saga.

The reality is that Ferrari has been the protagonist of many episodes that negatively impacted the result in key races. Scuderia had to be the favorite. Friday and Saturdays have been a script of the F1-75 being the best on track. There were great setups in practice, many pole positions on Saturday at the Hungary GP.

Undoubtedly, the F1-75 model looks to be the best project of the newly designed Formula 1 cars, the fastest, the most aerodynamic. This car is a championship winner. The drivers, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, a great mix of incredible talent and mentality, which makes the duo one of the most competitive in the category. It gets extremely hard to answer why is Ferrari, conceding an 80 points gap in the WDC, with Verstappen holding the big lead in mid-season from Leclerc, a gap in points seen last from the 2011 season when Vettel (Red Bull) had the same gap from Alonso (Ferrari). Moreover, how is Ferrari points away from Red Bull, with – a struggling – Mercedes at only 30 points in the Constructor championship?

Hungary GP: The fall from grace on Sunday

It is true also that the big jump in competitiveness from the past two seasons is not something to forget. This season Ferrari is at least there, every weekends. The past two seasons we had Mattia Binotto on a weekend basis talking about this 2022 season as the turning point of Ferrari. But Bahrain with Leclerc 1^st and Sainz 2^nd was such a sweet return to victory, and every fan saw the superiority on track if compared with the other big teams.

Last February, when Ferrari unveiled the F1-75, experts deemed the project was very different and aggressive. In comparison to the other Formula 1 cars, Ferrari expected that the gamble could pay off, but also have some issues. Reliability then becomes an acceptable variable in these terms, with understanding the DNF from Leclerc in Australia and Sainz in Austria, which accounts for a 1^st and 2^nd position respectively.

Humanizing Formula Drivers

Drivers, being humans, are expected to have decreases in performance, as for example Leclerc last week in France or Sainz in Imola. It becomes acceptable for Ferrari to lose some points for these reasons. Leadership and team strive to reduce the margins of mistakes that can be controlled, in order to outweigh the expected loss of points due to uncontrollable factors in the Formula 1 sport.

That gap existent given by the ability to reduce the margin of error as a team is where Ferrari is losing the most point. A team would positively affect this by a.) adopting the right strategy though the weekend and race b.) excel in quickness of response in decision making. It is easier to say, in action though the strategy may vary according to the development of the race, but also in response to rival’s team decision.

Formula 1 is indeed a complex strategic environment. Seconds lost in a race results from a second lost in strategizing. This sport margin of success depends on maximizing gaps.

The Hungary Grand Prix is more proof

Charles Leclerc with a great race pace was leader of the grand prix, with medium tires with 6/8 laps less abrasion compared to the rivals, capable of building a decent gap. Then, Scuderia leadership calls Leclerc to the box.

In that moment, strategy at Ferrari’s paddock must have seen a window in which Leclerc could have successfully responded to Verstappen’s pitting and tried to avoid a potential undercut.

Hard tires have not proven to be a great choice over the weekend in Hungary.

There was also Alpine with Alonso and Ocon looking in heavy difficulty with hard tires.

Leclerc and Ferrari confirmed the negative performance on Hard tires. Verstappen was looking incredibly performing with medium tires compared to Leclerc, and in few laps, and including a 360 spin, the Dutch on Red Bull was able to overtake and cruise toward an incredible victory, considering his 10^th position on the starting grid.

Ferrari’s leadership forced Leclerc to null the strategy, pitting one more time and switching to soft tires.

There unfortunately was too late. 4 pits stop in a race where tire management recommended 2/3 max, is too much to maintain the lead.

On the other hand, Carlos Sainz had the right pit stop strategy, yet struggled to maintain a race pace as good as Red Bull and Mercedes, closing the Hungarian GP 4^th behind the rest of the podium Hamilton 2^nd and Russell 3^rd.

This Ferrari story is a bittersweet one

Hungary is another weekend where Red Bull (and Mercedes) leave gloriously, and rather than looking for merit, is more for other teams’ misfortune.

The other guys are Ferrari.

At this point of the season is time to compound all the information. In many grand prix, Ferrari made team strategies the  scapegoat of Ferrari’s disappointing weekends. Where driver and car excel, Ferrari looked to impede with choices that instead of reducing the MOE, increased it dramatically.

However, while car improvement has been noted and drivers have been improving in performance compared to the past, there is a team behind that is in the process of learning to be a world champions competitor.

Maybe as Ferrari fans, we dreamed and expect Ferrari to return to the 2006 team that was able to size any gaps and make the Rossa and the Italian anthem to be heard in all the grand prix. Maybe is the expectations set after that first round in Bahrain that are putting the overall team performance incidence on a negative standpoint. In reflection, there wasn’t a period before this that the engineers and strategists had  proved themselves against Red Bull & Mercedes.

There wasn’t a time for Binotto to confront his teams on the same level of Horner and Wolff. Ferrari is still a work in progress, in this new cycle of Formula 1.

This is possibly another transition year, ahead of the complete transformation to a winning team

Maybe not many would remember, but Michael Schumacher took about 5 years in Ferrari before bringing back the golden legacy. There were times between 1995-2006 (ex: 2000) where things didn’t look great in terms of team strategy and car performance. Therefore, the Hungarian GP, another lesson learned for Ferrari. Another important step to grow a winning team.

Considering that this is the ground zero, Ferrari holds an important gap in terms of technology and car performance. While the team’s negative strategy disappointed many Ferraristi, there is positivity in terms of experience and leadership.

See you on August 28th, back from the Formula 1 summer break and back in Spa, Belgium.